What Next?

Posted on 01 February 2010

Really, what is next in Canadian politics?

Liberal and NDP MPs are currently hard at work in Ottawa, and those on their self-imposed vacation will come back when Parliament returns in early March.  At that point we get a Throne Speech and then a confidence vote.

What happens after that?   How does that vote go?

Poll numbers are slowly creeping in favour of the Liberals, but it is still a dead heat.  Do they want to risk an election at this point?  I’m not sure.  It could be a huge risk, because there is no guarantee in victory, but they have certainly had a good showing over the past couple months, which I’m sure has increased their confidence levels.

But do Canadians want an election?  Last time that threat was made the Conservative polling numbers jumped up.  I fear this will happen again.  We have had far too many elections (for the non-political dork types like myself) in the last couple years, and I know Canadians have definitely tired of it.

On the other hand, one of the best Conservative talking points, made quite clear the other day by Tony Clement, is that “if you don’t like us then vote us out.”  This applies to the parties in power as well.  By not voting out the Conservatives in confidence votes does make the opposition look weak on some levels.  I can see this as a good point.  In a pure and simple argument, if you don’t like the government in power you shouldn’t support them in votes of confidence.  Unfortunately this perspective is simplifying it far too much.  In the current Canadian political climate people don’t want an election.  Voting out the current government will likely severely hurt your polling numbers – and this is not what the opposition wants, because then they will lose the election, and bring us back to exactly where we are.  The trends in the polls seem to show that Canadians care more about not having an election then the actual actions of the parties.  I’m sure this will change soon enough though, once a reasonable amount of time has passed from our last election.

My honest opinion is that the current situation, especially for the Liberal party, is quite the Catch-22.  They can’t support the government, but they can’t vote them out.  It’s tough.  This is going to require some great strategy on behalf of the Liberal team.

My personal opinion?  Take the heat and support the government for a while longer.  This is a self-imploding government in my opinion.  They have multiple scandals, plus the prorogation right behind them.  They are losing control of the fantastic messaging they have held for the past few years, and losing their lead in the polls.  Give them time to further damage their image, because when they come back they are going to be pummeled with questions about their anti-democratic agenda and the Afghani prisoner scandal.  If given enough time Canadians will be more inclined to go back the polls, allowing opinions to rest on ideas instead of  the “I don’t want an election” sentiment.

Simply put – further expose the scandals and incompetence of our current government, while developing a good rapport with the Canadian public and publishing many solid platform policies.   The Liberals have the ability and talent to move forward with a strong plan like this, but they need to be patient.  They need to ensure they execute their strategy properly and slowly move the polls towards them, but this will take time.  Do it properly and build to a strong Liberal government – preferably a majority.